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5km Predictor Test

Testing and measurement are the means of collecting information upon which subsequent performance evaluations and decisions are made but, in the analysis, we need to bear in mind the factors that may influence the results.


The 5km Predictor Test is used to predict an athlete's 5-kilometre time.

Required Resources

To undertake this test, you will require:

  • 400-metre track
  • Stopwatch
  • An assistant

How to conduct the test

The athlete is required to run 4 × 1600 metres with 90 seconds recovery between each run and the time for every 1600 metres is recorded.


I have not been able to locate any normative data for this test.

Predicted 5k time = (Average of the 4 recorded times) x 3.125

The 3.125 comes from the fact the average time is for 1600 metres and we require a time for 5000 metres hence we need to divide the time by 1600 and multiply the result by 5000 (5000 ÷ 1600 = 3.125)

The following calculator will predict your 5km time using your results from this test. Enter your four 1600 metre times and then select the "Calculate 5km Time" button.

1st 1600m mins secs   2nd 1600m mins secs
3rd 1600m mins secs   4th 1600m mins secs
  5km Time mins secs

When to use

To predict performance and monitor progress this test can be used at the:

  • beginning of the winter training to establish a baseline (September/October)
  • just prior to indoor racing (December/January)
  • just prior to the outdoor season (March/April)


Analysis of the result is by comparing it with the results of previous tests. It is expected that, with appropriate training between each test, the analysis would indicate an improvement.

Target Group

This test is suitable for middle distance athletes but not for individuals where the test would be contraindicated.


Test reliability refers to the degree to which a test is consistent and stable in measuring what it is intended to measure. Reliability will depend upon how strict the test is conducted and the individual's level of motivation to perform the test. The following link provides a variety of factors that may influence the results and therefore the test reliability.


Test validity refers to the degree to which the test actually measures what it claims to measure and the extent to which inferences, conclusions, and decisions made on the basis of test scores are appropriate and meaningful. This test provides a means to monitor the effect of training on the athlete's physical development. The degree to which the test actually predicts 5km times is high.


  • Minimal equipment required
  • Simple to set up and conduct
  • More than one athlete can conduct the test at the same time
  • The test can be administered by the athlete


  • Specific facilities required
  • Assistant required to administer the test

Free Calculator

  • 5km Predictor - a free Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that you can download and use on your computer.

Page Reference

If you quote information from this page in your work, then the reference for this page is:

  • MACKENZIE, B. (2005) 5km Predictor Test [WWW] Available from: [Accessed

Related Pages

The following Sports Coach pages provide additional information on this topic: